2013년 12월 3일 화요일

About 'historical forex rates'|FOREX RATES..







About 'historical forex rates'|FOREX RATES..








               The               business               world               revolves               around               a               few               major               concepts               or               factors               which               include               resources,               value               adding               processes,               market               place,               customers,               service,               growth,               risk               to               name               a               few.

In               turn               all               of               these               are               tied               to               one               central               concept               i.e.

the               market               clearing               price               or               simply               PRICE               or               COST               depending               on               your               position               in               the               transaction.
               Price               is               the               concept               which               equalizes               demand               and               supply               and               consequently               all               business               activity               whether               it               is               in               the               brick-and-mortar               world               or               the               technology               world               or               any               other               domain               of               human               endeavor               (for               that               matter               including               space               flights               and               search               for               exotic               and               rare               minerals).
               Therefore               it               makes               sense               for               all               students               of               business               to               have               a               basic               conceptual               understanding               of               how               to               forecast               or               prognosticate               prices               of               commonly               traded               products               and               services               in               order               to               develop               future               plans.
               How               can               we               do               that               ?
               There               are               various               ways               of               approaching               this               fundamental               business               problem.
               1.

DETERMINE               DEMAND               AND               SUPPLY               CURVES
               The               above               encompasses               determining               and               plotting               expected               demand               and               supply               curves               for               the               product               under               review.

This               may               be               possible               by               utilizing               statistical               tools               such               as               regression               analysis               etc.

but               will               not               be               practical               as               accurate               economic               data               is               impossible               to               compile;               especially               data               based               on               demand               impulse               generated               by               the               human               mind               and               body,               weather,               mining               discoveries               etc.
               So               this               method               is               out               of               reach               of               most               of               us               other               than               econometric               experts.
               2.

PURE               FINANCIAL               ANALYSIS               BASED               ON               FUNDAMENTAL               ECONOMIC               METRICS
               We               are               talking               about               fundamental               analyses               which               includes               DCF,               IRR,               EVA               etc.

for               companies.

This               forecasting               in               itself               includes               another               round               of               forecasting               and               making               assumptions               regarding               all               raw               materials               and               other               costs               going               5               years               into               the               future               at               the               least.

Furthermore,               the               same               concepts               will               be               very               difficult               if               not               impossible               to               apply               to               say               Crude               Oil               or               any               other               commodity.

You               cannot               apply               DCF               to               Palladium               or               can               you?
               So               we               are               forecasting               the               price               of               a               company               based               on               our               assumptions               (read               forecasts               about               future               prices               of               raw               material,               human               resource,               interest               rates               etc.).

We               are               forecasting               on               the               basis               of               forecasts               or               in               my               words               squaring               unknowns               by               an               equivalent               unknown               factor...why               does               that               remind               me               of               Donald               Rumsfeld...?
               3.

MODELS               BASED               ON               PAST               HUMAN               BEHAVIOR               REGARDING               BUYING               AND               SELLING               AND               PRICE               HISTORY
               That               seems               complicated.

But               it               is               not.

Its               just               a               type               of               technical               analysis.
               We               understand               that               to               forecast               prices               through               mathematical               models               as               mentioned               above,               we               need               to               forecast               a               host               of               other               factors               and               prices               and               this               constitutes               an               unending               chain.

Evidence               suggests               that               CAPM,               DCF               and               other               models               failed               to               forecast               the               Great               Recession               that               we               are               living               through.

Not               because               there               is               something               inherently               wrong               with               the               logic               of               the               models               but               because               they               are               themselves               dependent               on               various               assumptions               about               future               events               and               hence               try               to               replicate               rational               human               behavior               when               we               know               that               humans               can               also               be               quite               irrational.

Tulip               mania,               World               Wars...anyone...
               At               QAM               Research,               we               believe               that               we               can               simplify               the               whole               concept               of               forecasting,               or               to               use               a               better               term,               prognosticating               prices               through               a               study               of               historical               prices               combined               with               certain               models               derived               by               market               observers               inductively               over               the               centuries.

This               body               of               knowledge               is               commonly               called               Technical               Analysis               but               we               call               it               the               QAM               TRADING               TEMPLATES               1.4               as               modified               and               disciplined               by               our               research               of               18               years               into               the               subject.
               We               have               no               claim               to               the               objectivity               of               our               template               based               model,               but               they               are               based               on               concepts               that               are               said               to               model               price               action               or               in               other               words,               human               behavior               and               we               believe               are               the               most               comprehensive               way               of               prognosticating               prices               of               actively               traded               shares,               futures,               commodities,               currencies               etc.
               So               coming               back               to               the               theme               of               the               article,               when               a               business               manager               is               developing               the               feasibility               of               a               refinery               in               say               the               Middle               East,               he/she               needs               to               forecast               crude               prices,               interest               rates,               exchange               rates               over               a               long               term               horizon.

How               is               that               done?

By               utilizing               one               of               the               methods               mentioned               above.
               To               find               more               about               the               QAM               TRADING               TEMPLATES               1.4               ,               write               to               us               at               :
               mustafaamjed@yahoo.com
Mustafa               QAM               RESEARCH
               TEMPLATES               FOR               WINNING               TRADERS               

               DISCLAIMER
               Trading               is               inherently               a               risky               business               proposition               with               potential               for               huge               losses.

The               above               text,               templates,               seminars,               workshops,               courses,               research,               assignments               and               any               other               material               and               information               marketed               by               QAM               Research               and               this               blog               are               for               training               and               educational               purposes               only.

All               traders,               readers,               trainees,               workshop               participants,               course               participants,               clients               et.

al.

are               themselves               responsible               for               all               their               trading               decisions.






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    China,               Cuba,               Laos,               Vietnam               and               North               Korea               are               the               only               Communist               countries               left               in               the               world.

    While               the               others               are               relatively               small,               those               at               InvestTechFX               believe               that               China               is               on               track               to               overtake               the               United               States               as               the               largest               economy               in               the               world,               and               one               that               arguably               holds               the               greatest               economical               power.

    To               date               she               maintains               a               currency               pegged               to               the               $US               and               of               late,               one               that               is               pegged               to               a               basket               of               major               currencies.

    Forex               trading               of               the               Yuan               will               be               heartily               welcomed               if               it               is               floated               on               forex               currency               exchanges.

    To               her               credit,               China               has               remained               very               consistent               in               a               rapidly               changing               world               which               has               experienced               as               many               negative               experiences               as               it               has               positive.

    Even               in               the               Asian               Economic               Crisis               of               the               90's,               China               remained               firm               in               its               economic               policy               and               at               that               time,               was               praised               by               the               rest               of               the               world               for               maintaining               a               staunch               forex               currency               exchange               policy               despite               the               detriment               its               own               export               industry               suffered.

    The               natural               mechanisms               balancing               demand               for               imports               with               increased               prices               reducing               that               demand               are               not               present               when               a               currency               is               under               a               fixed               regime.

    The               Chinese               government               therefore               needs               to               be               much               attuned               to               the               subtleties               of               the               domestic               economy.


                   Today               however,               with               online               forex               trading               so               popular,               the               world               appears               to               have               forgotten               this               consistency.

    Almost               every               developed               economy               demands               that               China               revalue               its               currency               upward               or               allow               forex               trading               market               forces               to               dictate               the               value               of               the               Yuan.
                   The               United               States               is               China's               largest               trading               partner               and               claims               that               China's               exports               remain               artificially               cheap               due               to               the               low               value               at               which               the               Yuan               remains               fixed.

    China               however,               has               not               been               found               to               be               unresponsive,               and               over               the               past               6               years               had               revalued               the               Yuan               almost               18%               from               US$8.19               in               2005               to               US$6.50               in               2011.

    An               important               step               toward               a               float               of               a               currency,               in               2010               China               declared               that               it               would               no               longer               be               fixed               to               the               $US               dollar               but               will               be               linked               to               a               basket               of               currencies.

    This               basket               is               not               revealed               unfortunately,               but               common               sense               dictates               that               it               will               be               comprised               of               the               major               world               currencies               that               China               trades               with.


                   The               fact               remains               however,               that               regardless               of               the               speculation               by               FX               brokers               and               the               rest               of               the               world               that               China               will               float               the               Yuan               on               the               online               forex               market,               Chinese               authorities               have               only               ever               maintained               that               they               valued               consistency               and               measured               steps               in               foreign               currency               policy               over               the               drastic               reform               of               a               sudden               float.
                   As               with               the               Asian               Crisis,               the               experts               at               www.investtechfx.com               have               seen               a               large               number               of               speculative               currency               attacks               on               forex               currency               exchanges               and               with               online               forex               brokers               usually               attach               themselves               to               currencies               with               a               fixed               regime.

    Particularly               when               inflation               appears               to               be               out               of               immediate               control,               or               if               the               fixed               currency               regime               cannot               be               sustained               by               the               government               central               bank               intervention,               speculators               will               sell               heavily               in               order               to               drain               that               government               of               all               its               foreign               reserves.

    China               has               managed               to               ward               off               the               attacks               of               speculators               simply               due               to               the               fact               that               its               population               has               exploded               in               the               last               decade               to               absorb               the               huge               amounts               of               capital               that               are               flowing               into               the               country.

    Additionally,               China's               foreign               currency               reserves               are               maintained               due               to               the               FX               trading               and               foreign               investment               that               she               allows               through               capital               management               programs.
                   China               is               still               a               very               conservative               nation               with               a               political               ideology               opposed               by               most               of               the               developed               world.

    Still,               she               remains               an               example               of               tolerance               as               time               and               time               again,               China               has               been               willing               to               recognize               her               role               in               the               global               economy,               negotiate               with               other               countries               of               contrary               politics,               and               collaborate               on               systemic               programs               such               as               the               stimulus               of               the               global               economies               during               the               Global               Financial               Crisis.

    Despite               the               global               clamor,               China               may               not               in               fact               float               the               Yuan               and               allow               FX               trading               in               the               near               future.

    She               may               instead               sail               the               steady               course               she               has               for               so               long               now.

    Her               duty               to               her               people               certainly               doesn't               turn               on               floating               the               currency               as               the               present               arrangement               appears               to               be               most               agreeable               to               China's               healthy               economy.









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    2013년 12월 2일 월요일

    About 'banks that exchange foreign currency'|Foreign Currency Rates Play an Important Part in Foreign Exchange Market







    About 'banks that exchange foreign currency'|Foreign Currency Rates Play an Important Part in Foreign Exchange Market








    Banks               and               credit               card               companies               are               wonderfully               inventive               in               thinking               up               new               ways               to               charge               you               to               use               your               own               money.

    One               of               the               classic               and               most               annoying               of               these               is               the               currency               conversion               or               foreign               transaction               fee.

    This               is               a               fee               charged               for               simply               using               your               credit               or               debit               card               in               a               foreign               country,               and               can               be               in               addition               to               the               exchange               rate               .

    I               hate               the               fees               and               think               they               are               unfair,               and               upon               return               from               a               recent               cruise               to               Mexico               we               were               quite               surprised               to               see               all               the               fees               adding               up               on               our               monthly               credit               card               statement.

    Citibank               charged               us               several               dollars               just               to               use               our               card,               each               time.
                   I               was               glad               to               read               in               the               New               York               Times               that               Citibank               and               American               Express               will               begin               to               waive               certain               foreign               transaction               fees,               after               Chase               did               the               same.

    These               three               companies               control               many               more               branded               cards               from               airlines               and               other               providers,               so               the               impact               is               big.
                   Smart               travelers               know,               if               you               travel               abroad,               you               can               simply               use               your               credit               card               for               a               transaction               and               receive               the               benefit               of               the               bank's               currency               conversion               rate               when               the               transaction               is               processed.

    But               just               because               they               can,               they               add               an               additional               fee               amount               or               percentage               to               each               transaction.

    Also,               the               best               way               to               get               local               currency,               and               pay               the               lowest               exchange               rate,               is               also               to               use               your               ATM               card               in               a               local               ATM               to               withdraw               local               currency               from               your               US               bank               account               or               credit               card               account.

    The               foreign               currency               and               foreign               exchange               fee               can               negate               the               exchange               rate               savings               and               just               add               to               confusion,               so               I               am               glad               to               see               them               start               to               disappear.
                   While               we're               on               the               subject               of               traveling               abroad               and               using               your               credit               or               debit               cards,               here               are               a               few               key               tips               we've               learned               to               prevent               problems.
                   Call               your               issuer               in               advance               
                   Card               companies               have               rigorous               security               procedures               and               may               decline               sudden               charges               from               a               foreign               country.

    Simply               contact               customer               service               before               your               trip               and               let               them               know               of               your               plans.
                   Change               your               PIN               to               numbers               only               
                   Some               foreign               ATM               machines               have               only               numeric               key               pads               and               it               can               be               almost               impossible               to               translate               a               PIN               code               that               includes               letters.

    Also               do               you               know               the               PIN               for               your               credit               cards?

    This               can               allow               you               to               access               funds,               even               in               an               emergency               or               if               other               cards               don't               work.

    Check               with               your               issuer               to               confirm               or               obtain               a               PIN.
                   Check               about               chip-PIN               cards               
                   Many               countries               now               use               debit               and               credit               cards               with               a               chip               embedded               as               an               extra               layer               of               security.

    Check               with               your               card               issuer               to               see               if               they               offer               such               cards               for               international               travelers.

    Check               with               your               hotel               or               other               local               sources               to               see               if               chip-PIN               cards               are               necessary               for               that               area.
                   Ron               Lieber               "More               Cards               Waive               Foreign               Exchange               Fees"               The               New               York               Times               via               nytimes.com
                   More               from               this               contributor:               
                   Basic               Tax               Tips               For               Independent               Contractors               and               Freelance               Workers               
                   What               Does               A               Cheap               Euro               Mean               For               The               Rest               of               The               World               
                   How               To               Choose               The               Best               Mobile               Phone






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